The items in these minutes are not necessarily in the order discussed.

Mayor Burton called the meeting to order at 1:00 p.m.

There were no regrets.

Meeting of June 13, 2016

Moved by Councillor Duddeck

That the minutes of the Livable Oakville (Official Plan Review) Council
Sub-committee meeting of June 13, 2016, be approved, as amended by adding the following sentence under Item 5a – Urban Structure Review – Work Program, as a point to the last paragraph on the bottom of page 7 respecting Bronte Growth Area Review:

“-    Review the Bronte Village Growth Area Review with regard specifically to St. Ann’s Court.”

                                                                                           CARRIED

There was no business arising from the minutes.

Diane Childs, Manager of Policy Planning, provided introductory remarks regarding the town wide Employment and Commercial Review, which is being undertaken as part of the town’s Official Plan Review.  Ms. Childs advised that the purpose of this afternoon’s workshop was for the consulting team to present their findings on the commercial part of the review, and for staff to obtain comments from the sub-committee regarding any additional issues or opportunities that need to be examined.  She outlined the process, advising that the key sections of the report would be presented to the sub-committee with the opportunity for discussion, input, and clarification.

Ms. Childs advised of the next steps after the workshop, indicating that staff and the consulting team would finalize the Commercial Report based upon the feedback that was received from the sub-committee, and it was anticipated that staff would report on the Employment Land Demand and Supply Analysis, which is the other part of the study, in September 2016.  A comprehensive preliminary directions report would be presented to the Planning and Development Council in late fall 2016 with both the completed commercial and employment portions of the study.

Ms. Childs introduced the town’s consultants led by Justine Giancola, Associate, Dillon Consulting, in association with Jamie Cook, Director, Watson & Associates and James Tate, President, Tate Economic Research Inc.  The Commercial Report prepared by the consultants is an analysis of the town’s commercial lands completed in late 2014, and sets out the key issues and opportunities related to planning for commercial lands and uses, which have informed the preliminary commercial policy directions.

The town’s consultants provided a presentation regarding the Employment and Commercial Review Workshop (Part 1) with respect to the town wide commercial land demand and supply analysis.

Justine Giancola advised that the consulting team would present information in the report focusing on the commercial part of the review, and provide an overview of the process as it has been undertaken over the last 18 months and started in 2014.  Ms. Giancola provided an overview of the workshop, highlighting the main areas of the commercial review, including commercial supply, demand analysis, macro-economic trends, and bringing these items together to focus on the key issues, opportunities and preliminary policy directions, which were highlighted in the report.

Ms. Giancola acknowledged that in addition to the members of the consulting team who were present, the team was led by Dillon Consulting in collaboration with Watson & Associates, Tate Economic Research Inc., and SGL Planning & Design Inc.

Jamie Cook provided an overview of the macro-demographic and macro-economic trends in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), Oakville’s growth outlook within GTHA context, the growth forecast methodology, and employment growth forecasts for the town.  He indicated that the focus today was on the retail and commercial part of the project, and that the consultants would report back to the sub-committee with respect to employment lands in September 2016.

Mr. Cook reviewed the overall macro-economic trends and broader demographic conditions that were ultimately driving and influencing the need for both employment and commercial lands over the long term planning horizon.  He advised of key findings indicating that the provincial economy has experienced significant structural economic changes since the early 1980s.  There has been a fairly moderate shift from traditional goods producing and manufacturing sectors to more of a service sector economy with additional focus on retail, as well as the knowledge based sectors. 
Mr. Cook indicated that the economic shift was accelerated back in 2009 as a result of the global economic downturn.  There was a fairly significant decline in manufacturing throughout Ontario, and the country as a whole, and the manufacturing sector “hit bottom” in 2010.  Since then, there has been more stabilization but not a lot of growth in the manufacturing sector while there has been strong growth in the service and knowledge based sectors.  He explained that this shift was creating a number of economic challenges and opportunities for the province, Halton Region, and Oakville.  More specifically, there has been less industrial growth than forecasted through Halton Region’s best planning estimates, and more employment growth in the institutional and commercial sectors, which impacts the planning for both commercial and employment areas.

With respect to the GTHA, Mr. Cook advised that significant population growth is forecasted to 2041, there is a very strong and diverse regional economy, and the GTHA’s office sector is among the strongest in North America with an increase in new office construction over the last decade.  He further advised that many of the larger urban municipalities (e.g., City of Toronto and City of Mississauga) within the GTHA were starting to approach build out, and there was outward growth pressure to urban and suburban markets further out in the GTHA, which continues to move west in terms of the macroeconomics on this side of the GTHA.

With respect to Oakville’s growth outlook within GTHA context, Mr. Cook stated that the overall growth potential for the town depends on the overall success of the GTHA as a whole.  Mr. Cook advised that Halton Region is anticipated to be the fastest growing upper/single tier municipality in the GTHA over the next 30 years, with the population projection being almost double the rate of growth expected province-wide.  He further advised that Oakville was well positioned geographically to accommodate a diverse mix of non-residential development, which was driven by various factors driving local and regional decision making in terms of business locations.

With respect to the growth forecast methodology, Mr. Cook explored how population growth impacts the demand for commercial and employment lands.  He advised that employment was broken down into two main categories: community based industries (e.g., retail commercial, personal service uses, schools and government services), which are directly tied to population growth; and export based industries (e.g., industrial and office), which tend to be driven by broader economic/market conditions as well as regional/local attributes, and are not typically driven by the local population.

With respect to employment growth forecasts, Mr. Cook advised that the town’s forecasted population is 246,400 in 2031, based on Halton Region’s best planning estimates, and 265,000 in 2041, as prepared by Watson & Associates.

Discussion ensued and the sub-committee raised the following matters for consideration:

·         The town should not get ahead of and/or exceed the province’s population forecasts, having regard for the recent OMB decision for Niagara Region.

·         What assumptions and planning considerations were made by Watson & Associates in determining the 2041 population forecast of 265,000?  Drill down the numbers for population (e.g., Midtown, Downtown, and Palermo, etc.).

·         Provide a copy of the report prepared by Watson & Associates regarding 2041 population forecast for Oakville to the members.

·         Define employment spaces and recognize trends 10 years from now and in the future.  Allow some flexibility in demographics to plan for 2031 and 2041.

·         Address home office workers.

·         Address the impact on jobs and population if the activity rate falls.

·         There seems to be a disparity in terms of too much population to jobs.

·         Council and local input should be considered with respect to the population forecast.

·         The activity rate implies more congestion as people try to get out.

·         There is no evidence to support a belief that the modal split can move from 6% to 20% (e.g., Active Transportation Master Plan (ATMP) and modal split).  It is important to monitor the variable.  Can goods, services, and people be moved?

·         More work needs to be done with respect to the town’s population forecast.

·         The ability to forecast with respect to manufacturing is hard and retail is even more difficult.

Responding to questions regarding the town’s population forecast, Jamie Cook advised that the Growth Plan forecasts to 2041 would be finalized through Halton Region’s allocation process with input from the town’s own analysis, and the official plan review.  Mr. Cook indicated that his projections fit very well with the region’s numbers, and that Watson & Associates is working for the region and all of the local municipalities except Halton Hills.

Mr. Cook responded to additional questions about how population migration was addressed, population projections disseminated by growth areas,  analysis of employment and density trends by sector, and the review of floor space per employee trends using Halton Region’s employment survey.

Mr. Cook also noted employment trends, such as floor space plateauing and maybe coming down a bit, more office development in Oakville, and floor space per worker for office sector declining.  He advised that work at home employment numbers have been reviewed and that there are a lot of factors, indicating that the numbers were relatively constant at 10% and was not expected to drop.

Mr. Cook responded to further questions regarding activity rate advising that Oakville was in quite good shape and GTA municipalities should be striving for an activity rate of 50% or higher, and explaining the reasons for the drop in the activity rate.  Mr. Cook indicated that he would review his notes to clarify the ratios.

Responding to questions regarding the town’s population forecast, Jane Clohecy, Commissioner of Community Development, noted that any population and employment forecasts as part of the early town studies are not final forecasts.  The purpose of the forecasts at this time are to provide the town with an indication of the extent of land needs to 2041, reflecting a bottom up approach.  This approach enables the town to better inform the region on how growth should be accommodated.  The finalized population and employment forecasts will come from Halton Region.  Any draft population and employment forecasts through the regional top down approach, will be reviewed by the sub-committee, prior to finalizing the town’s forecasts.  Ms. Clohecy advised that a report regarding Urban Structure using the bottom up approach would be presented in the fall.

Jamie Tate provided an overview of the commercial part of the review presenting a brief synopsis of the current market conditions, and details of the retail land demand and supply analysis.

Mr. Tate provided information regarding commercial market demand with respect to consumer surveys, and 2014 resident’s spending trends (food and non-food) for major retail categories in Oakville.  He highlighted that warehouse club spending was not happening locally as Oakville does not have a warehouse and residents are going out of town, but Oakville is relatively well served for food.  He presented a map of retail nodes in town.

Mr. Tate reviewed a summary of the existing retail space inventory, advising that the town’s current retail inventory was equivalent to approximately 47.8 sq. ft. per capita, and this was very good although it varies dramatically by sub-areas in town.  It was noted that there are not a lot of large commercial stores in the northwest zone (specifically, there is a lack of grocery stores in the northwest zone).  He illustrated maps of existing supermarkets, department stores, building and home supply, and Canadian Tire stores located in town.

Mr. Tate reviewed the analysis in terms of retail space demand.  He advised that there are opportunities in terms of what is in a shopping centre, it was estimated that 10%-15% of retail space would be replaced by on-line retailing as a result of e-commerce, some on-line retailers have a store presence, and mall and retail spaces are evolving.

Mr. Tate also reviewed the analysis in terms of commercial land demand, advising of estimates for warranted new space land requirements and coverage ratios, figuring out how much land is needed, and noting there was an indication of going more dense and intense.  He indicated that location and space per capita were important considerations.

Mr. Tate provided information regarding commercial supply, highlighting maps of the Livable Oakville Official Plan and North Oakville Secondary Plan designations, reviewing vacant commercial land supply in South Oakville and the maximum permitted commercial in areas of North Oakville, commercial supply assumptions, commercial supply versus demand, and issues and challenges.  He indicated that there was a total of 20 ha. of vacant land in South Oakville and 32 sites identified with 25 small sites which are less than 0.5 ha.  Mr. Tate reviewed key issues, opportunities, and preliminary policy directions, which were highlighted in the report.

Discussion ensued and the sub-committee raised the following issues for consideration:

·         Retail impact on the downtown and local Business Improvement Areas (BIAs) in Oakville and how to protect these areas from large scale retailers (e.g., Toronto Premium Outlet Mall on Trafalgar Road and improvements to malls).

·         Review Table B1 Oakville Retail Zones and correct the numbers as needed, and provide a revised Table B1.

·         The employment rate, commercial competition, businesses moving, and retail spaces relative to saving Downtown Oakville.  Opportunities for the downtown (e.g., proximity to water).

·         There appears to be an issue with retail.  There is too much retail supply in South Central Oakville.  Look at planning mechanisms to support additional retail in North Oakville.

·         Spending in the amount of $2 million by residents shopping out of town at Costco, and additional dollars which are spent for trips (e.g., lunch, dry cleaners, etc.).

·         It is an addition to the community to have small convenience retail and/or commercial uses in the residential neighbourhood (e.g., Mac’s Convenience Store).  Look at remaining sites which are vacant and accessible, and how long they have not been built on.  Should sites with limited retail opportunity remain vacant?

·         Change map colours (e.g., the shades of red look the same for Core Commercial designation, etc.).

·         The compatibility issue in terms of adding multiple stories above retail which is not retail, and providing additional parking to accommodate these uses which may be difficult.

·         Address commercial sites in low rise neighbourhoods more closely.

·         Office versus commercial for Burloak Drive area.

·         Provide clarification with respect to preliminary direction #5: Develop a monitoring program.  A sub direction may be required.

·         Land supply in terms of running out of land, pacing development out slower, and developing every piece of land or keeping some land.

Responding to a question regarding retail use on the main floor and residential use above the main floor, Justine Giancola advised that this would be clarified in the policy, and that higher density uses would be reviewed.  With respect to the reference to the word “surplus”, Ms. Giancola provided clarification in terms of lands not identified as surplus.

Responding to further questions, Jamie Tate advised that retail would be looked at in greater detail.

Through the workshop process, Planning staff noted the following additional issues identified by the sub-committee:

·         More information on population forecasts used (e.g., basis for Watson & Associates’ 2041 forecast of 265,000 for Oakville); concern about proceeding with Employment and Commercial Review work; would like to see a background report to understand assumptions made and how Council can have input.

·         Portion of vacant retail space that consists of small units (e.g., 5000 sq. ft. or less).

·         Relatively static modal split.

·         Compatibility of potential mixed use redevelopment on existing commercial sites (e.g., along Trafalgar Road corridor) with adjacent neighbourhoods; additional residential intensity versus additional office/employment intensity, particularly tall buildings.

Through the workshop process, Planning staff noted the following additional opportunities identified by the sub-committee:

·         Should the repurposing of some existing retail space in south Oakville be considered?  Explore the south Oakville retail space surplus versus the north Oakville deficit in more detail.

·         Certain small sites should be maintained for neighbourhood/convenience retail and/or service commercial uses (e.g., vacant site in Iroquois Ridge North).

·         Should certain lands be redesignated to permit or require commercial development in the “northwest zone”?

Moved by Councillor Duddeck

That the report entitled Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Land Demand and Supply Analysis, dated July 20, 2016, be received.

                                                                                           CARRIED

The members had questions regarding implementing and maintaining affordable housing units over time with respect to how this could be achieved and there may be several potential owners and tenants.

Mayor Burton advised that he was a member of a provincial task force for affordable housing dealing with solving the housing problem, and reviewing housing models, such as Habitat and making housing benefits affordable, and that he would provide further information on this issue.

The members had further questions regarding limiting section 37 by-laws (bonusing) opportunities to which the inclusionary zoning by-law applies, as this was one of the proposed amendments to the Planning Act.

Mayor Burton asked that the members provide their questions regarding Bill 204 to him prior to the next meeting of the task force.

Jane Clohecy, Commissioner of Community Development, asked that the next sub-committee meeting be scheduled on August 22, 2016 at 1:00 p.m., to deal with the Provincial Coordinated Review and to receive comments from the sub-committee prior to a staff report going forward to Planning and Development Council in fall 2016.

Mayor Burton provided an update regarding the September 30, 2016 deadline for public consultation on the Provincial Coordinated Review, indicating that more information would follow on this.

Mayor Burton called the next meeting of the sub-committee for August 22, 2016 at 1:00 pm.

Moved by Councillor Knoll

That the report entitled Bill 204 - Promoting Affordable Housing Act, 2016 (Inclusionary Zoning), be received.

                                                                                           CARRIED

There were no information items.

-        Provincial Coordinated Review including the Growth Plan and the Greenbelt Plan

The Mayor adjourned the meeting at 2:59 p.m.